MvS Week 13 Preview

rival

So, here we are. Week 13. Last week of the MvS regular season and everything to gain or lose for some teams. Not only that. It’s rivalry week! Divisional tensions going back literally a couple of months will burst forth sending some teams on to Championship glory and others to Stuartship ignominy. We’ll take a look at those match-ups. But first, current standings:

2016-11-29

With seven teams on six wins and losses, and ten teams potentially able to finish 7 – 6, we’re staring down the barrel of a tied-division argument of massive proportions, even by MvS standards. Mike’s excellent work on the Degenerates podcast showed just how complicated the machinations of grabbing the available slots in the championship are for some teams. I can’t be arsed reading through the disagreeing whatsapp discussions, so here are the rules for tiebreakers in the league.

Tiebreakers

Yahoo Sports uses slightly different criteria to break ties that involve a division leader vs. for wild-card playoff spots.

Division Leader

If 2 or more teams tie for the lead in a division, the following tiebreakers will be used to determine the division winner.

  1. Division winning percentage.
  2. Total fantasy points (season total).
  3. Fantasy points scored in most recently completed matchup.
  4. Fantasy points scored in the matchup two weeks prior.
  5. The comparison continues until the tie is broken or no more weeks remain to compare. At that time, a coin flip will settle the tie.

Understanding a tie:

  • Teams must have identical winning percentages to be considered tied in the standings.
    • A team with an 8-4-1 (.654) record will be seeded ahead of a team with an 8-5 (.615) record.
    • A team with an 8-6 (.571) record will be tied with a team with a 6-4-4 (.571) record.
  • If 3 or more teams tie for a division lead, once the division winner is determined, all other teams involved in the tie are then seeded using the wild-card tiebreaking criteria.
  • In leagues that use divisions and use the playoff seeding option “All teams seeded according to overall standings,” the wild-card tiebreaking criteria will be used to break all ties, including those that involve a division winner.
  • Division winners that finish with the same winning percentage will be seeded using the wild-card tiebreaking criteria.
  • Division winning percentage is determined in the same way as overall winning percentage, except it only includes games against division opponents.
  • Depending on your league’s settings it’s possible to have a better record than a team leading another division but still have a lower seed.

Wild Card

If 2 or more teams tie for a wild-card (non-division leading) position, the following tiebreakers will be used to determine the standings

  1. Total fantasy points (season total).
  2. Fantasy points scored in the most recently completed matchup.
  3. Fantasy points scored in the matchup two weeks prior.
  4. The comparison continues until the tie is broken or no more weeks remain to compare. At that time, a coin flip will settle the tie.

Qualifiers:

  • In public leagues, if a game is tied, it’ll be scored as a tie. In private leagues, if a game is tied, the commissioner can manually edit scoring to account for any tiebreaker rules that are used in their league.
  • In leagues where division winners are guaranteed a playoff spot, wild card teams are selected without consideration for divisions. Non-division winners will be ranked in the playoffs according to winning percentage or the tiebreakers listed above.
  • It’s not possible for a commissioner to configure a league to require a balanced number of teams from each division in the playoffs.
  • Head-to-Head results aren’t considered when breaking a tie at the end of the regular season.
  • Yahoo uses these tiebreakers to determine the order of the standings during the regular season, as well as for determining the final playoff seeds.
  • It’s not possible for commissioners to change the season tiebreaking criteria for their league.

Ok, a boring read but probably going to be referred to come Tuesday…

Anyway, onwards to this week’s

matchups

Storm v Longbows

stormvlong

Coach Preece had a slow start to the season, waiting for week 5 for his first win. But he made good use of his waiver wire priority and put together a five-week winning streak between games 7 – 11, and only narrowly lost last week.

Coach Carr has had some excellent wins this season but has lacked the consistency to put together a long string of Ws, despite having Brees, Shady, and Julio in his starting line up.

screech

Screech says:

“A win will give the Storm the #2 seed unless the Meltdown win too and outscore the Storm by 87 points. A loss for the Storm and a win for the Whippets would give the Whippets the division crown on the division record rule. Storm are roughly 99.99999% (comprehensive maths used) assured of playoff football this season due to their huge points score and if they did lose the division this week, the Storm would end up as the 5th seed (if Seagulls beat Pirates and don’t score 26 more than the Storm) or 6th seed (if Pirates beat Seagulls). For the ‘bows, the division crown is out of reach as the Storm have scored nearly 300 points more than the Longbows and the Whippets would have a better division record. Unbelievably though, the Longbows CAN make the playoffs as the #7 seed. With a win of their own, they would need the Pirates, Barbarians, Bombers and Murder all to win. If the Pirates beat the Seagulls they would end up as the #8 seed, but if the Bombers, Barbarians or Murder let Caz down, it’s off to the Loser Bowl due to their poor points total. With results going against them, the Longbows could end up as the #14 ranked team.”

Prediction

The last matchup of these two teams resulted in the biggest margin of victory of the season and, while the margin might not be so wide, I don’t see the result being any different this week. Storm win.

Murder V Footsoldiers

murdervf

I don’t think many of us expected the commish to be 5-7 at this point, least of all TK himself. After getting off to a flyer in week one against the Storm, and pinning his hopes on Brady’s come back, he’s struggled to put a run together and finds himself 3rd in the South division and 13th overall.

Olly’s footsoldiers are one of the many 6-6 teams fighting for a playoff spot, but with five losses on the trot, confidence in their general may be ebbing away. Lead quarterback Mariota is on a bye week in this crucial matchup, making life tricky in rivalry week.

screech

Screech says:

“The #13 ranked team can make it to the playoffs in the final week. The Murder need the Reds, Whippets, Longbows and Hellfire all to lose and the Murder to win. The Murder can get the 7th seed if they can outscore the Foot Soldiers by 5 points. The Murder can also finish ranked 14th if they lose and the Icebears win….or anywhere in between 7th and 14th.  Another win and you’re in situation for the Foot Soldiers who will rise to at least the #7 rank due to Pirates and Seagulls playing each other. Ollie can win the division but it’s not the most likely outcome, but he can grab the number 6 seed if Hellfire win or the Rapscallions win but Soldiers outscore them by 13.75 points. Ollie can also not make the playoffs with a win if the Rapscallions win (and score more than the Soldiers) and the Reds win (and score 25.5 points more than the Foot Soldiers). The Soldiers can make the playoffs with a loss, but they would have to lose to the Murder by less than 5.5 points to stop the Murder overtaking them and every other team at 6-6 lose too.”

Prediction

Murder to go 6-7 with a win over the squaddies.

Pirates V Gulls

pirvgul

With Rocky on 7-5 and TC on 6-6, this is one of the games that could end in a tie so it’s all to play for for the Pirates. Antonio Brown is hitting his stride but Big Ben has been sporadic at best. TC doesn’t have the big points scorer like Brown in there but steady Stafford and Mel Gordon et al may be consistent enough to see the tiebreak rules come in to play in North. Rocky is probably too reliant on other results to reach the championship this time.

screech

Screech says:

“A win or tie will keep Rocky in the number 5 seed. A loss could knock Rocky out of the playoffs as 7 other teams could end up at 7-6 (1 team would be the division winner from the West so won’t affect Rocky too much). Rocky’s points scored is in the lower half of the table which leaves him quite vulnerable and COULD end up as the #11 ranked team with wins from the Seagulls, Rapscallions, Foot Soldiers, Reds, Hellfire and Whippets (Hellfire and Whippets would need to outscore the Pirates by 9.75 & 61.75 points respectively). They realistically can’t be caught by the Longbows due to points difference. A win would pretty much give TC the #5 seed no matter what happens elsewhere due to points scored (next relevant points scorers are the Rapscallions who are 87 points behind. TC could end up as the #10 seed if they lose and Soldiers, Reds, Rapscallions and Whippets win, but of course they would still sneak into the playoffs if 2 of those teams lost due to their superior points score.”

Prediction

Gulls to win in a closer game than Yahoo predicts, predictably.

Bombers v Whippets

bomvwhip

On 4-8, the Bombers, who my other half still thinks are from Brighton and have the most inappropriate name ever, have had a bad season and will have their eyes on getting an early draft pick in 2017. The Dogs had a brilliant start to the season heading out to 6-1 but the Cousins-led team have fallen away in the second half of the regular-season. This will be a tight matchup and the Whippets will be watching a lot of other results as well as their own game.

screech

Screech says:

“Realistically the Bombers are going to end up as the #15 or #16 seed. A win will give them #15, if the Bombers lose and the Spartans win then the Bombers are going to face a horrible draw in the Loser Bowl (more on that after the week 13 games). To catch the Icebears at #14, they would need them to lose as well as outscoring them by 83.25 points. The Whippets would win the division with a win vs the Bombers and the Storm lose to the Longbows. A win won’t guarantee playoffs though. With a win, the Whippets could still finish as low as the #10 seed if Seagulls, Reds, Storm & Soldiers win. You can bump the Whippets up a space for each one of those teams that don’t win and thus if they all lose, the Whippets could find themselves in #7 seed (Storm would win the division and one of Hellfire and Rapscallions are finishing above the Whippets whatever happens)”

Prediction

Cam Newton, Zeke Elliot, and Ginn will see the Bombers through to victory.

Taxis v Hellfire

rrvh

Al takes on Fray. Godgers takes on DangeRuss. Jordy takes on the Jaytrain. On paper, this should be a fairly close game, despite Yahoo’s prediction. And it’s yet another of the potential 7-6 tie games. Neither team has put together a run of Ws of late so this one could be interesting.

screechScreech says:

“The ‘runners won the East with an impressive division record despite being the lowest scoring team in the league. How does that make sense? Can end up as the #2 seed if they win and the Storm and Meltdown both lose or the #3 seed if one of them loses. A loss will keep them at #4. It’s not in the Hellfire’s hands now if they want to make the playoffs. They need to beat the Roadrunners but also need one of the Reds, Soldiers and Seagulls to lose (or all 3 to get to #6 seed). Lose and you’re into the LB and could have a sharp fall to #14th seed if Whippets, Longbows, Murder, Icebears all win (and 15th seed if Bombers also win but score 76.25 points more).”

Prediction

The Roadrunners of Reigate (bookable on 01737 76 00 76 with very reasonable rates to the airport) will ride their luck for one more week to a win, but the only ring they’ll get is on the phone.

Meltdown v Icebears

meltvice

Despite a loss last week, Dav’s meltdown have had a strong season, and particularly have a 4-0 divisional record. Meanwhile, the Force has not been strong with Luke and some bad benches have left him sitting at 1-4 in his division and 5-7 overall.

screechScreech says:

“While Davin isn’t officially division champ, he’ll be mighty unlucky not to be crowned South division winner. Davin would need to lose to the Icebears and Soldiers would need to beat Murder & Soldiers would need to outscore the Meltdown by 39.5 points. At this point, it looks like Davin is going to be the #3 seed or the #6 seed (#7 seed if the Rapscallions outscore the Meltdown by 26 points or probably worst case scenario #8 seed if the Reds won and outscored him by 64.75 points). I need some outrageous effort in the last week to make the playoffs and score about 150 points more than everyone else. Unlikely.”

Prediction

Tyrod Tailored and Mark Ingram aren’t going to be enough to be enough to get Luke over the top against the Gronk and Amari Cooper. Dav wins and is a strong contender for a ring this year. Something something, Dav melts Luke’s ice. I dunno, whatever.

Reds v Barbars

redsvbar

Rusty has had an outstanding season with a 9-3 coming into this week. David Johnson has scored some serious points and Phil Rivers has been consistently up there throughout the season. If Johnson stays injury-free, then the Barbarians could pillage and plunder their way to the Championship. Meanwhile, Max has had Winston under centre and Forte racking up points at RB. Kiko and Rodney McLeod have done well though they may not have managed to fill JJ Watt’s defensive boots.

screechScreech says:

“Doesn’t matter what the Barbars do this week, #1 rank in the bag already. Great season for Rusty so far. Max is 8th in the league in scoring but could still get as high as the #6 seed in the league. First off they would need to beat the high flying Barbarians this week and then hope Pirates beat Seagulls, Murder beat Soldiers, and Hellfire beat Rapscallions (Rapscallions could win this and Max would end up as #7 seed). A win may not necessarily be enough for Max though. Wins for Soldiers and Rapscallions keep them ranked above Max, the loser of Seagulls and Pirates would drop below Max, but he could be outscored by the Hellfire 44.5 points to keep him as the 9th ranked team. If the Reds lose, there is still a small chance they could they could sneak in as the #8 seed but a lot needs to happen (Storm beat Longbows, Bombers beat Whippets & Murder beat Soldiers, but they would need to outscore the Soldiers by 25.25 & Murder by 19.5 – and they would be safe from the being outscored by the other 6-7 teams Whippets, Longbows and Hellfire baring a miracle).”

Prediction

My head says Rusty adds another W to the tally, but I stand with my comrade and call a misjudged win for the Reds.

Rapscallions v Spartans

rapsvspa

At 3-9, the Spartans have had a pretty terrible season so far. It’s almost as if Mike has had other things on his mind, distracting him. Can’t imagine what. Bortles isn’t quite up there and Carlos Hyde hasn’t really lived up to expectation. On the D, Telvin Smith, Suh and Joey Bosa have all put up good scores but inconsistently. His opponent, Pete, has been caught attempting to cheat far less often than usual, but when you’ve got Mike Evans and Odell bringing home the big scores, maybe you don’t need to.

screech

Screech says:

“The Spartans can rise to 15th with a win and the Bombers lose but that is where the rise up the standings stop. The Spartans won’t want to finish bottom as they could come up against a tough first round match in the Loserbowl against a team with a winning record. A win will get Redhill all but into the playoffs. The only thing they would have to look out for is that the Reds don’t win and score 39 more points that them and the Soldiers win and score 13.75 points more. Rapscallions can get in as the #8 seed if they lose but need the Reds, Whippets, Longbows and Soldiers all to lose (but also not to be outscored by the Soliders, Murder and Reds by 13.75 points, 19.5 points and 39 points respectively).”

Prediction

I can’t really see this going anywhere other than to the ‘scallions. Obviously, as a fellow Raiders fan, I’m delighted. Pete Wins.

So there we have it. A long and wordy preview but quite tricky to do it any other way, I’m afraid. Well done if you made it this far, I almost didn’t. We’ll find out on Tuesday who is in line to join the pantheon of greats such as the dirty old men, gypos, helmet skins, big gay bears, ginger bullets, and tache restructure in this, our tenth anniversary year.

See you then for the review. Best of luck.

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